EP 99: Iran Investing & I'm a Kook

Andy VandenBerg, CFA
Founder

What's in store for you:

  1. Photo From My Life
  2. Financial Thought: How Iran Impacts Investing
  3. Life Thought: It's Okay To Be a Kook
  4. Good Sh*t: Luna

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Photo From My Life:

There's nothing better than morning surf sessions. But, more on that later.

Financial Thought:

How Iran Impacts Investing: Unless you've been living under a rock, the headlines out of Iran (and plenty of other corners of the world) have been loud. Depending on what you read, we are either one step away from a major escalation or we are watching the same tensions that have existed for decades.

The honest answer is that I do not know what's going to happen. And neither does anyone else even if they're sitting in the room making the decisions.

Geopolitics does matters for markets. It can impact oil prices, shipping routes, inflation expectations, consumer confidence, and corporate earnings. It can also change the mood of investors overnight. But taking that messy, emotional newsflow and turning it into a clean investing decision is where people get into trouble.

As I like to reiterate, following the news is not an investing strategy. Its job is to capture your attention, not protect your long term goals. By the time a story hits your phone, markets have already repriced, and the people (and computers) who trade for a living have reacted far faster than the rest of us.

That is why I like to zoom out.

The chart below shows the S&P 500 one year forward return following major geopolitical events going back to the Korean War. The average outcome is about a 14% gain. There are plenty of positive examples. There are also negative examples. There is no magic pattern you can trade.

Markets have a long history of digesting frightening events, absorbing uncertainty, and moving forward. This is why a goals based investment strategy works so well.

When your portfolio is built around your goals, your timeline, and your ability to stomach volatility, you do not need to predict what happens next in Iran or anywhere else.

A few simple reminders:

  1. Short term money should be boring. If you need cash in the next few years for a home, taxes, or a life change, that money should not be dependent on the stock market.
  2. Long term money in equities. If your goal is retirement in 10 to 30 years, you probably need exposure to equities, and that means accepting uncomfortable stretches.
  3. Diversification is how you stay in the game. No one asset class wins every year, especially when the world feels unstable.
  4. Your plan is only as good as your ability to stick with it. The perfect strategy on paper is worthless if it falls apart the moment the news gets scary.

I cannot tell you how the situation in Iran will resolve. I can tell you that trying to invest based on breaking news is a stressful game with low odds. A better strategy is to keep your focus on the few things you can control. Your savings rate, your diversification, your discipline, and most importantly, your goals.

Life Thought:

It's Okay to Be a Kook: I’ve been surfing five mornings a week and taking a lesson once a week with video review. It's been epic.

In the water, I feel great. I’m catching waves, riding down the line, doing cool cut backs. I genuinely think, "wow… I’m kinda getting decent at this."

Then I watch the footage. And it’s like watching a stranger. There's no way that's actually me! Arms everywhere. Stance questionable. The board is doing one thing, I’m doing another. Total kook energy.

I'd be lying if I said this didn't hurt my ego a bit. I wanted to look like I was good! But, after a few hours of reflection (and my wife laughing at my video), I accepted something. I don't care how I look. I'm never going to be John John Florence. I'm doing this because I enjoy surfing and I really enjoy getting better at something. Improvement is fun.

Once you stop trying to look cool, you can focus on more important things. You can actually learn. You can have fun. Surfing is just one example of this phenomenon. But this applies to almost everything:

  • building a business
  • getting in shape
  • learning a new skill
  • creating anything worth sharing
  • trying to be a better parent/partner/human

Most good things require a phase where you look unpolished. And if your goal is perfection (or applause), that phase feels unbearable. If you switch your main goal to just improving, it feels normal. Even exciting.

So here's my intention. I want to do things for the process, not the optics. Chase progress, not performance. Letting myself look like a kook because that’s what it looks like when you’re actually learning.

Good Sh*t:

Luna: One of the best decisions I've made is choosing to partner with Ben back in 2018. We started WeHero together. Ben has always been the brains behind everything. I can bring energy, optimism, and the occasional operational idea. Ben brings everything else.

Since we sold WeHero, Ben has been building a very cool service called Luna and it's now launching! He comes from a family of veterinarians and literally grew up in an animal hospital, so it feels like the most natural next chapter for him.

Luna is designed to give pet owners modern, affordable support right from their phone. You can get guidance instantly through Luna Chat (trained on trusted veterinary science), upload photos to get symptom insights, and if you need a human, video call a licensed vet pro with no waiting room required.

If you have a dog, cat, or any animal you love, I suggest you subscribe and check it out. He's offering a free trial and after that it's $8 per month..... for unlimited virtual vet visits.

Download the Apple app here and Android app here.

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Andy VandenBerg, CFA
Founder

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