What's in store for you:

1. Photo From My Life
2. Financial Thought: The Next 50 Years
3. Life Thought: Internet Friends
4. Good Sh*t: Slow Horses

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Photo From My Life:

Financial Thought:

The Next 50 Years: At dinner this week, someone asked, “If you could only invest in one company for the next 50 years, what would it be?”

The table went silent. A few concepts got tossed around. Moats, regulatory protection, etc. But, no one could give a confident answer. It was a great discussion, but we never landed on a clear winner.

So, I want to throw it to you (my very smart audience.) If you had to choose just one company to invest in for the next 50 years, what would it be and why? Reply to this email. I’d love to hear your thoughts.

After we moved past naming companies, someone made an interesting pivot: “At what time horizon could you confidently make that kind of bet?”5 years? 10? 20? 50? Once again, not an easy answer. And that’s the point.

Picking individual stocks is hard. Not just because you need to choose the right company, but because you also need to know when to buy it and when to sell it. Holding onto the right stock for the wrong length of time is often where people go wrong.

Just take a look at this chart of the top 10 S&P 500 companies by market capitalization over the last four decades. In 1985, names like Kodak, IBM, and General Motors dominated. Today, some of those companies don’t even exist. By 2025, we’re looking at a completely different list. Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta.

This visual is a stark reminder that dominance is fleeting. Capitalism works. Even the most powerful companies can fade. Markets evolve, technology shifts, and consumer preferences change.

So, yes, long-term investing is powerful. But long-term stock picking? That’s a whole different game. You not only need to pick the right company at the right time, but you need to sell it at the right time too. That's a lot of decisions.

There’s a quote I love that I think shows how some of the smartest investors think. The founder of Lone Pine, a hedge fund, described the key challenge with how people think. He famously said, “I don’t need an analyst to tell me when a 10 PE stock is cheap. I need an analyst to tell me when a 40 PE stock is cheap.”

I’ve come to believe that long-term investing success isn’t about finding alpha through brilliant stock picks. It’s about allocating to the right markets, not individual names. That way, I don’t have to be right about which company wins. I just have to believe that innovation will continue, that economies will grow, and that over decades, the market will reflect that progress.

Life Thought:

Internet Friends: I’ve come to accept that I’m a little weird. I make friends on the internet. I think the first time I told my wife I was grabbing coffee with someone I met online, she wasn’t quite sure what to say. Now, a few years later, it’s just part of life.

This past week, I spent time in Mexico with two friends I originally met through the internet. Ten years ago, that sentence would’ve sounded strange or maybe even a little sketchy. But today, it feels surprisingly normal.

When you step back, the internet is pretty amazing. You can find people who share your obscure interests, your career challenges, or your sense of humor even if they live 2,000 miles away. Sure, the digital world comes with its own mess, but it's special when you can take those virtual connections and make them real. Hard to beat sitting across the table from someone and laugh over tacos like you've known them for years.

We live in a wild time. And weird or not, I’m thankful for it.

Good Sh*t:

Slow Horses:

I’m not a big TV guy. Between work, family, and a growing list of hobbies I’m only half-good at, it’s rare for me to sit down and get hooked on a show.

But I have a ritual. Right before a flight takes off and again after landing, I let myself watch something before opening the laptop and diving into emails.

On my trip this week, I stumbled into Slow Horses and didn’t expect much. By the end of the first episode, I was in. By the end of the flight, I was already figuring out how to squeeze in the rest of Season 1.

The show follows a group of British intelligence outcasts who’ve been exiled to a department where careers go to die. The plot is clever.

If you want to give Slow Horses a shot, it’s on Apple TV.

Disclaimer: VDB Wealth is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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