EP 130: ST vs. LT & Paris Cafe Fantasies

What's in store for you:

1. Photo From My Life
2. Financial Thought: Short-Term vs. Long-Term
3. Life Thought: Paris Cafe
4. Good Sh*t: Fields of Fire

Photo From My Life:

Financial Thought:

Short-Term vs. Long-Term: One of the hardest parts of investing is deciding how much you should care about the next 1 to 2 years versus the next 10.

India is a good example for me. Over the last year, I've wanted slightly more exposure to India. So far, that hasn't exactly been a great call.

There are legitimate short term concerns. Higher energy prices are particularly painful for a country that imports the vast majority of its oil. AI also creates uncertainty for India's massive IT and outsourcing industries. These aren't small issues and could impact the Indian economy for years.

But then you zoom out.

India has one of the most compelling demographic stories in the world. It's now the world's most populous country, has a relatively young population, and should continue adding millions of people to its workforce. As other major economies deal with aging and shrinking populations, India has the opposite problem.

So which matters more?

This is where investing gets hard. It's easy to say you're a long term investor when the short term story also looks great. It's much harder when you believe in the next 10 years but aren't particularly excited about the next 2.

There's also a difference between a company or country getting cheaper because the underlying thesis is broken and getting cheaper because investors are focused on short term problems.

Obviously, figuring out which one is happening is the hard part.

India could struggle for another year or two and still be a great place to have money invested over the next 10 years. It could also turn out that some of these short term problems are more structural than I think.

I don't know what will happen. It's something I'm going to watch very closely over the coming year. The hardest part is recognizing that I may need enough conviction to be patient while also being open minded enough to realize that I could be wrong.

This challenge is why diversification matters so much. No single "bet" should drive a portfolio. If it does, you might want to take a second look.

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Life Thought:

Paris Cafe: I have this weird fantasy that pops into my head every few months.

I'm sitting at an outdoor cafe in Paris. I'm drinking an espresso, eating a croissant, and watching people walk by. I have nowhere to be. No emails to answer. No laptop sitting in my bag. No problems that need to be solved.

It sounds amazing.

It also sounds nothing like the life I've chosen to live.

I'm an entrepreneur. Even worse, I'm largely the product. My businesses, investments, and opportunities are tied to my time, relationships, and decisions. I have two young kids. My wife and I have a busy life. There's always something that needs to get done.

I need to accept the reality that the cafe in Paris isn't happening anytime soon. But, that's okay because I don't think I actually want it right now. It's just escapism.

I like being busy. I like chasing something. I like waking up with a problem to solve. I like the chaos of raising two young kids with a great wife. Sure, I complain about being tired and occasionally dream about having absolutely nothing to do, but I think I'd go crazy after about three days.

I want a full life. I want to work hard on things I care about. I want a house filled with kids running around. I want big goals that occasionally stress me out.

And every once in a while, I deserve the right to fantasize about going to Paris.

I can always take a vacation. I'll sit at that outdoor cafe. I'll order an espresso and a croissant. Maybe I'll even leave my laptop at the hotel.

And after a few days, I'll probably be excited to come home and get back to work.

Good Sh*t:

Fields of Fire: I'm a bit of a history nerd. Well, I guess I'm a normal nerd too. But, that's besides the point.

I've read about the Vietnam War and felt like I had a decent understanding of the history. Fields of Fire made me realize how different it is to understand a war versus actually feeling what it was like for the people fighting it.

The book follows a group of Marines fighting in Vietnam and does an incredible job capturing both the physical and mental experience. These were young guys dealing with horrific conditions while not always understanding why they were there or what they were accomplishing.

It's sad, brutal, and one of the better books I've read recently. If you're a history nerd like me, I'd highly recommend it. Here it is on Amazon, but check Libby or your local bookstore too!

Disclaimer: VDB Wealth is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.