What's in store for you:

1. Photo From My Life
2. Financial Thought: The big crash?
3. Life Thought: Home?
4. Good Sh*t: Playlist

Photo From My Life:

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Working Together

As I build my boutique wealth management firm, I'm looking to partner with the right people and families. If you've ever wondered whether it might be a fit, or you just want a second opinion on your current setup, feel free to reach out. Always happy to talk.

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Financial Thought:

The big crash?: Investing feels pretty easy right now. The market goes up. Your portfolio hits new highs. You open your account and feel a little bit richer than you did a few months ago. I hate to be the bearer of bad news.

The market will eventually go down. I have no idea when. I also have no idea what will cause it. Most people tend to think the reliance on AI spending is the leading potential cause right now, but things can change.

Since WWII, there have only been six drawdowns of 30% or more in the U.S. stock market. That’s probably less frequent than most people would guess. But, they happen. The next one could happen next year. It could happen five years from now. Maybe ten.

When it does happen, everyone will try to compare it to something we’ve already experienced. Is this another dot.com bubble? Is this 2008 all over again? My guess? It won’t look like either. History doesn’t repeat itself perfectly. Every market decline has a different catalyst, different headlines and different reasons why this time is different.

That’s what makes preparing for the next one so difficult. You can’t build a portfolio around predicting a crisis you know nothing about. So, what do I do with my own portfolio and the portfolios of my clients? It’s actually pretty boring: Take the appropriate amount of risk and diversify.

Your portfolio should be built around your financial plan, not your prediction of what the market will do over the next 12 months. If you don’t need the money for 5+ years and have the mental fortitude to watch your portfolio meaningfully decrease in value, you probably shouldn’t do anything differently. You own stocks because you want their long-term returns. Unfortunately, big declines are part of the deal.

The calculation changes when you actually need money from your portfolio. If you’re retired or regularly pulling money out, I generally like having 4-6 years of expected portfolio withdrawals invested in more conservative bonds. If stocks fall 30%, 40%, or 50%, you aren’t forced to sell them to fund your life. You have time to wait.

And I think the hardest part of preparing for the next market crash has very little to do with portfolio construction. It’s mental. Right now, investing is easy. When you open your account and see more money, it’s pretty easy to trust your financial plan. My job gets a lot harder when the opposite happens.

Imagine opening your account and seeing $3m instead of $5m. The news is terrible. Someone on CNBC says things are going to get worse. It's my job to work with clients to ensure we still have trust in the plan.

I can’t tell you when the next crash is coming. I can’t tell you what will cause it. And I’m certainly not going to pretend I can get you out of the market right before it happens. What I can do is make sure we’re prepared for it.

Life Thought:

Home?: I was raised in Milwaukee, and most of the families I grew up with came from families who had lived in the area for 100+ years. I now see most of my high school friends moving back, and part of me is a bit jealous. It would be nice to have deep roots like that.

But my family has chosen to follow our own paths. After college, I lived in NYC and San Francisco and now live in Savannah. My brother lived in London and NYC, and his family now lives in a NYC suburb. My sister lives in Copenhagen with her family. My mom jokes that she has almost all of her kids in different time zones.

I’ve wondered why this is the case, and I think there are a few reasons.

My parents grew up in Cincinnati and Grand Rapids, but moved to Milwaukee after living in NYC for 10+ years. They came to Milwaukee for a job, and when I graduated high school, my mom left again. So, I didn’t have the continued experience of going back home throughout life to see friends, family, etc.

But I think it’s deeper than that.

I grew up with my grandparents showing us slideshows of their travels around the world. Standing next to Lions, climbing the Great Wall in China, and exploring the rivers of Europe. They had never traveled much until my grandfather studied abroad as a 65 year old at St. Andrews. That’s a whole different story. After that, they proceeded to travel to over 100 countries.

As you can imagine, their travel inspired a sense of adventure and a desire to see the world. All three of us have wanted to replicate that in our own ways. We’ve all been lucky and seen a lot of the world.

Heck, my parents sent me on a month-long trip to Thailand called “Go With Nothing. Come Home Rich.” I literally went with the clothes on my back, a some money, and my passport. I did come home rich, but we struggled to find clothes in Thailand that fit me. Here's a great embarrassing photo.

As I’ve entered my own adulthood, my wife and I often talk about what home means to us.

Home to us is Northern Michigan.

It’s where we return to each and every summer. It’s where we feel most grounded, and it’s the place we love the most. But we don’t even live here. We spend two months a year here. Most of our friends and family are only here for two weeks to four months. So, it’s a weird and bizarre place to call home.

And sadly, after a great 2+ months in Northern Michigan, I’m driving back to Savannah today. It’s always the hardest day of the year. And it’s not just because I have an 18 hour drive ahead of me (thanks Celsius), but because I’m leaving my happy place. I’m leaving what feels like home.

This summer was special. I got to camp with my son and dip my 9 month old daughter in the holy waters of Lake Michigan and Lake Charlevoix. Even more than that, we got our fill of special family time. Grandparents, siblings, cousins, second cousins, nieces, nephews, lifelong friends, and new friends.

After I finished packing up the car last night, I got to partake in my favorite final tradition….a goodbye skinny dip.

Once again, there’s no real point to this section. I just felt compelled to share a bit about my origin story and my feeling of home.

I hope it inspires some reflection.

Good Sh*t:

Playlist: I was looking for the best party jam playlist for boat rides this summer and boy did I find it. Now, this isn't your Van Morrison and chill playlist. But, at this stage in my life, I'm taking 45 minute boat rides with 5 toddlers and dancing to fun music always helps. It includes some classic electronic jams, some pop tunes, and great boat country music. Enjoy it on Spotify here.

Disclaimer: VDB Wealth is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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